By Mark Simon

The recent Hall of Fame election got us thinking about active players, but beyond those who are surefire Hall of Famers like Mike Trout and Justin Verlander. We're more intrigued by the players who are close calls or tough calls and those who still have a little work to do. And we can use statistics to help us understand their situations more closely.

Bill James has a stat, Hall of Fame Value, which is (4 * Baseball-Reference WAR) + Win Shares, the latter a James-created stat meant to assess player value that he invented about 25 years ago, prior to the development of WAR.

There are currently 12 players who have reached the HOF-V threshold of 500 intended to measure Hall of Fame worthiness. Those who hit it last season include Manny Machado, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, and José Ramírez.

Highest Hall of Fame Value (HOF-V) - Active Players

The most likely player to clear 500 this season is Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, who stands at 473. Lindor had 23 Win Shares and 5.9 bWAR last season. His future footing as a Hall of Famer seems solid.

Dodgers DH/pitcher Shohei Ohtani is 61 points shy of 500 and normally we'd say that's too much to accumulate in one year, but not in this care. Ohtani added 67.8 to his total last season, in which he finished with 37 Win Shares and 7.7 WAR.

Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado is also right there at 471 HOF-V. But Arenado is coming off the worst season of his career, 8 Win Shares and 1.3 WAR. He'll turn 35 in April and is not anywhere near the hitter (or fielder) he was in his prime. His Hall case is still very good though.

Nolan Arenado - Hall-of-Fame Case

Some of the other players whose progress will be interesting to track are Royals catcher Salvador Perez, Brewers DH and left fielder Christian Yelich, and Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton.

Perez (HOF-V of 449) is 35 and hit 30 home runs and drove in 100 runs last year, though his overall offensive numbers dipped from 2024 to 2025. Win Shares still had him as a Top 50 player last season, though he managed only 0.4 WAR. He added 22.6 HOF-V to his total in 2025.

HOF-V doesn't take into account leadership aspects (which Perez is praised for) or postseason performance (Perez was a World Series MVP) so if he's a close call come retirement, those may be the things that push him over the top for election.

Yelich is actually a better candidate than you might think. He had 34.4 HOF-V last year, leaving him at 432 for his career. He's coming off a 29-homer 103-RBI season If he could match his 2023 or 2025 in each of the next two seasons and get a little closer to being a 300-homer/300 steals guy, he'd be right at 500 HOF-V and then the discussion around him would get more serious. It won't be easy given that he's in his age 34 season.

Stanton currently has a candidacy shaped by his 453 home runs (he's the active leader). His bWAR and Win Shares combo puts him at an HOF-V of 429. He's been injured often during his Yankees career and played only 77 games last year in his age-35 season. He's averaged 27 home runs but only 12 doubles per season the last four years, and the sum of his production limits his overall value.

Giancarlo Stanton - Season Averages, 2022-2025

Bill has acknowledged publicly that HOF-V tends to work better for position players than it does for pitchers, especially relief pitchers. Once you get past Verlander and Max Scherzer, the next starting pitcher in line is Chris Sale, who has an HOF-V of 411 and then there's another steep drop to Jacob deGrom (322) and Gerrit Cole (321).

The change in the role and usage of the starting pitcher is going to necessitate a reevaluation of what makes a Hall of Fame pitcher. Where Sale, deGrom and Cole rank among starting pitchers may be more important than what threshold they've cleared. The same is true for closers like Kenley Jansen (275), Aroldis Chapman (255, with off-field issues that may hinder his candidacy) and Craig Kimbrel (251).

For another perspective on the Hall of Fame and active players, we always enjoy Mike Petriello of MLB.com’s review, which includes not just the players listed here but younger ones (like Paul Skenes) whose careers are just getting started.

Check out the newly-redesigned SIS website! We’ve made it easier for you to find our articles, our data, and information about the tools and resources we offer.

The FieldingBible.com website is a great resource for your defensive stat needs. 

For more of our work check out The SIS Baseball Podcast, which posts new episodes every two weeks during the baseball season.

Mark Simon interviews players and coaches about defensive excellence. He also regularly talks with media members about the latest baseball news.

Check out our last couple of episodes in which Mark Simon talks to Fielding Bible Award winners Patrick Bailey, Ernie Clement, and Nico Hoerner, and NPB Fielding Bible Award winner Tyler Nevin.

For more football content, check out The Off The Charts Football Podcast. The SIS R&D team talks about all that's going on in the NFL. The show puts equal weight on both the scouting and statistical aspects of the sport.

The crew will dissect upcoming games and talk about pertinent football topics from an analytic perspective. 

You may have noticed this document in your inbox on occasion. Every Friday we send an e-mail newsletter with weekly highlights of the best content from our baseball, football, and basketball groups. It’s a go-to resource to make sure you don’t miss our most interesting work.

Our NFL Draft website is live, free, and being updated daily with scouting reports, stats, and much more. It's a great place to learn about notable rookies in 2025.

Our Football Operations team has combined forces with our Research & Development crew to bring you the most comprehensive draft prospect analysis. We treat you as if you're the GM trying to figure out which player to select for your team. Each player is graded and evaluated. You can use our Draft Matrix to see all our rankings at a glance and click on an individual report for greater detail.

Our statistical information package includes Total Points, our proprietary metric that values everything that happens on the field, as well as position-specific performance data in the form of raw totals, averages, and percentile rankings. We've got data points and measurements from the NFL Combine too. The website has a glossary that explains stats with which you may not be familiar.

 Check it out!