By Mark Simon

There are reports that the Mets are interested in trading utility man Jeff McNeil after their falter, McNeil's sputter at the finish line last season, and the acquisition of Marcus Semien to play second base.

McNeil, who will turn 34 in early April, went 4-for-46 in the final 15 games of the 2025 season, chopping 52 points from his OPS, which finished the season at .746.

But according to one of our measurement tools, McNeil was a better hitter than his final line appeared.

Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and subsequently single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, how long they spend in the air, and the speed of the batter, as well as the ballpark in which the ball was hit. 

This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats.

McNeil finished with a .746 OPS, but his expected OPS by our measures, was .890. The 144-point gap was the largest among players with at least 300 plate appearances last season .

Mets fans are used to seeing McNeil exude frustration after a hard-hit out (this example was a ball with a 71% hit probability).

Here’s the leaderboard for the hitters with the biggest negative differential between their actual and expected OPS, among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances.

Perhaps McNeil will take solace in knowing that his constant frustration was justified. McNeil lost a lot of hits on balls with hit probabilities between 40 and 60 percent. He hit 59 such balls, resulting in 29 expected hits. The actual number of hits McNeil got was 17 .

Here are two more examples from that group of outs that induced a McNeil helmet slam and a touch of profanity.

Semien is actually on this list too. His .669 OPS was 84 points lower than his expected OPS. Semien actually made this list for the 2024 season too, finishing with an OPS 82 points below his expected OPS. Over the last two seasons his actual hit total is about 32 hits below his expected hit total. McNeil is the only player to have lost more hits (roughly 34). Semien also had 14 doubles below his expected total, most in MLB.

And there's yet another Mets player: outfielder Tyrone Taylor, who had a miserable offensive season in 2025, finishing with a .598 OPS. He'd finished with an OPS over .700 in every season from 2021 to 2024 and had his actual numbers matched his expected numbers, he'd have done so again in 2025.

The biggest differential among non-Mets was Tommy Edman, who finished the season with a .655 OPS and a .769 expected OPS. Defenses fared quite well against both Edman and McNeil, recording 12 Defensive Runs Saved against them, which ranked in the Top 15 this season.

Jo Adell had it worse. Defenses had 14 Runs Saved against him, which helps explain why he finished with a .778 OPS and an .869 expected OPS.

In both McNeil's case and Adell's case, their season-ending numbers would have been perceived much differently had their actual totals been closer to their expected numbers. McNeil had the 9th-highest expected OPS in MLB. Adell ranked 18th.

Semien made this list two years in a row, but there were some players on last year's list who did bounce back in 2025. Bo Bichette's 2024 OPS was 99 points under his expected OPS. He had a terrific season in 2025, hitting .311 with an .840 OPS. T.J. Friedl, Maikel Garcia, and Zach McKinstry also thrived after having a rough go of it in 2024.

Caveats abound here. Just because McNeil, Adell, and the others on this list could have been better in 2025 doesn't necessarily mean that they will be better in 2026. But if you believe in a player on this list and are looking for reasons to feel good about them, then these numbers should provide you some comfort.

The FieldingBible.com website is a great resource for your defensive stat needs. 

For more of our work check out The SIS Baseball Podcast, which posts new episodes every two weeks during the baseball season.

Mark Simon interviews players and coaches about defensive excellence. He also regularly talks with media members about the latest baseball news.

Check out our last couple of episodes in which Mark Simon talks to Fielding Bible Award winners Patrick Bailey, Ernie Clement, and Nico Hoerner, and NPB Fielding Bible Award winner Tyler Nevin.

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